In March 2010, Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted an opinion poll to define gender-related attitudes in politics. The poll used face-to-face interviews, 1521 respondents aged 18 and older were interviewed (the select error is up to 3%). The respondents were asked three questions on gender-related attitudes in politics. The results are presented in Tables 1-3.Table 1. What candidate (a man or a woman) would you vote for in the next Presidential Elections campaign?
Table 1. What candidate (a man or a woman) would you vote for in the next Presidential Elections campaign?
|
Answer |
% |
|
For a female candidate |
11.1 |
|
For a male candidate |
34.8 |
|
The candidate’s gender makes no difference for me |
49.9 |
|
No answer or invalid answer |
4.2 |
Table 2. There are different opinions about female candidates for Presidency. Which ones below can you agree with? There may be more than one answer selected.
|
Answer |
% |
|
The candidate’s gender will not make any difference for me |
39.2 |
|
The country must be ruled by a man |
22.5 |
|
People in Belarus will not elect a woman for Presidency |
18.0 |
|
Politics is not for women |
18.0 |
|
If a woman becomes the President, there will be more care taken of people, more attention to people’s needs |
7.3 |
|
There are no women worthy of being elected for Presidency |
6.5 |
|
Every woman must deal only with the house and kids |
6.0 |
|
The more women in politics, the more order in the country |
5.9 |
|
I will vote for a woman for Presidency because her women qualities will improve our political atmosphere in general |
5.9 |
|
I am a woman, I will support women and vote for them |
3.4 |
|
I am sick and tired of men in politics, we must attract more women there to bring some positive changes |
2.8 |
Table 3. If the candidates for the next Presidential Elections would be the active female politicians listed below, who would you vote for?
|
Answer |
% |
|
Lidia Yermoshina, the Chair of the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus |
14.3 |
|
Natalia Petkevich, the First Deputy of the Presidential Administration Chair |
10.7 |
|
Marianna Shchetkina, the Minister of Labor and Social Security of the Republic of Belarus |
9.1 |
|
Elena Skrigan, the Deputy Chair of the Spravedlivy Mir (Just World) Political Party (left-wing party) |
4.9 |
|
Olga Karach, the leader of the Nash Dom (Our Home) Civic Campaign |
4.6 |
|
Inna Koulei, the Chair of Salidarnasc (Solidarity), the Committee for protecting and helping the victims of repressions |
4.6 |
|
Some other candidate |
8.6 |
|
No answer or invalid answer |
43.2 |
The data in Table 1 can be interpreted differently. On the one hand, over 60% voters are ready to support a female candidate for Presidency, which means that most citizens are not prejudiced against a woman to head the country. On the other hand, there are still more than a third of voters who are prejudiced against a woman for Presidency, and this is a big distance which female candidates have to go before they are equal to men in the political struggle.
The Table below shows how different motivations for voting form gender values in political spheres.
Table 4. Relations between gender motivations and gender-related preferences in politics, %
|
Gender motivations |
What candidate (a man or a woman) would you vote for in the next Presidential Elections campaign? |
||
|
For a female candidate |
For a male candidate |
The candidate’s gender makes no difference for me |
|
|
The candidate’s gender will not make any difference for me |
0.3 |
1.7 |
94.3 |
|
The country must be ruled by a man |
1.8 |
79.2 |
15.5 |
|
Politics is not for women |
2.5 |
80.4 |
12.4 |
|
People in Belarus will not elect a woman for Presidency |
5.5 |
44.9 |
43.8 |
|
If a woman becomes the President, there will be more care taken of people, more attention to people’s needs |
60.9 |
10 |
25.5 |
|
There are no women worthy of being elected for Presidency |
4.1 |
64.3 |
25.5 |
|
Every woman must deal only with the house and kids |
2.2 |
79.3 |
13 |
|
The more women in politics, the more order in the country |
59.6 |
2.2 |
33.7 |
|
I will vote for a woman for Presidency because her women qualities will improve our political atmosphere in general |
80.9 |
4.5 |
14.6 |
|
I am a woman, I will support women and vote for them |
69.2 |
1.9 |
25 |
|
I am sick and tired of men in politics, we must attract more women there to bring some positive changes |
53.5 |
2.3 |
41.9 |
The strongest motivation here is ‘gender equality’. If respondents have noted this as their motivation, they almost necessarily make the corresponding gender-related political choice. As for discriminating motivations, they are much stronger biased towards men. Those discriminating motivations are very much enforced by widely spread and actually tautological statements like ‘The country must be ruled by a man’ and ‘Politics is not for women’. Why a man? Because that is the way it must be! Why not a woman? Because it is not the right thing! 80% of the respondents who marked those statements as their preferences also stated that they are going to vote for a male candidate. Actually, the motivation just as strong is produced by a slightly more rational appeal ‘Every woman must deal only with the house and kids’, which is based on patriarchal values. However, the supporters of this motivation are relatively few, just 6%.
But a politically contextual motivation like ‘People in Belarus will not elect a woman for Presidency’ determines the corresponding gender-related political choice to a considerably lesser degree. About half of the respondents who selected that also state that for them personally the candidate’s gender does not make any difference.
At the same time pro-female motivations determine the corresponding gender-related political choice to a considerably lesser degree. Only one of them, that of ‘I will vote for a woman for Presidency because her women qualities will improve our political atmosphere in general’ produces the same level of readiness to vote for a female candidate, as compared to ‘manly’ motivations producing the readiness to back a male candidate. But again, those who have this motivation are relatively few (6%), much fewer than the number of pro-male motivation holders.
The other pro-female motivations produce a much lesser impact on the corresponding gender-related political choice. 25-40% of such respondents have marked that ‘The candidate’s gender will not make any difference for me’.
Table 5 below has the same structure and Table 4, but studies the opposite relation, namely how gender-related political choice is determined by gender-related motivations.
Table 5. Relations between gender-related preferences in politics and gender motivations, %
|
Gender motivations |
What candidate (a man or a woman) would you vote for in the next Presidential Elections campaign? |
||
|
For a female candidate |
For a male candidate |
The candidate’s gender makes no difference for me |
|
|
The candidate’s gender will not make any difference for me |
1.2 |
1.9 |
73.9 |
|
The country must be ruled by a man |
3.6 |
51.1 |
7 |
|
Politics is not for women |
4.1 |
41.8 |
4.5 |
|
People in Belarus will not elect a woman for Presidency |
8.9 |
23.3 |
15.8 |
|
If a woman becomes the President, there will be more care taken of people, more attention to people’s needs |
39.9 |
2.1 |
3.7 |
|
There are no women worthy of being elected for Presidency |
2.4 |
11.9 |
3.3 |
|
Every woman must deal only with the house and kids |
1.2 |
13.8 |
1.6 |
|
The more women in politics, the more order in the country |
31.5 |
0.4 |
4 |
|
I will vote for a woman for Presidency because her women qualities will improve our political atmosphere in general |
42.9 |
|
1.7 |
|
I am a woman, I will support women and vote for them |
21.4 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
|
I am sick and tired of men in politics, we must attract more women there to bring some positive changes |
13.6 |
0.2 |
2.4 |
The preferences for a female candidate are mostly determined by the motivations ‘I will vote for a woman for Presidency because her women qualities will improve our political atmosphere in general’ and ‘If a woman becomes the President, there will be more care taken of people, more attention to people’s needs’. The preferences for a male candidate are mostly determined by the motivations ‘The country must be ruled by a man’ and ‘Politics is not for women’.
Table 6 below describes the relations between gender-related political choice and sociodemographic parameters.
Table 6. Relations between sociodemographic parameters and gender-related political choice, %
|
Sociodemographic parameters |
What candidate (a man or a woman) would you vote for in the next Presidential Elections campaign? |
||
|
For a female candidate |
For a male candidate |
The candidate’s gender makes no difference for me |
|
|
Gender |
|||
|
Male |
28 |
59.2 |
41.8 |
|
Female |
72 |
40.8 |
58.2 |
|
Age |
|||
|
18-29 |
27.8 |
20.2 |
22.1 |
|
30-59 |
43.8 |
50.8 |
55.4 |
|
60 |
28.4 |
29.1 |
22.5 |
|
Education |
|||
|
Primary (up to 4 years of a secondary school) |
8.3 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
|
Secondary incomplete (including incomplete vocational schools) |
15.5 |
15.3 |
12.5 |
|
General secondary (a completed secondary school, a liceum, a completed vocational school) |
37.5 |
40.6 |
36.4 |
|
Professional specialized (a technicum, a college, etc) |
25.6 |
22.5 |
28.6 |
|
University (including incomplete higher education) |
13.1 |
14.3 |
15.3 |
|
Social status |
|||
|
The head or the owner of a company or an organization |
3 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
Self-employed |
3 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
|
An employee at a private company |
19.6 |
17.2 |
18.5 |
|
An employee at a government-controlled company |
28 |
35.3 |
36.7 |
|
Student |
8.9 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
|
Retired (retirement or disability pension) |
31 |
29.6 |
23.6 |
|
Housewife |
2.4 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
|
Unemployed |
4.2 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
|
Type of settlement |
|||
|
The capital |
23.2 |
16.4 |
20.3 |
|
A regional center |
15.5 |
20.7 |
19.2 |
|
A big city (over 50 000) |
19 |
16.9 |
18.8 |
|
A small city (below 50 000) |
20.2 |
16.9 |
16.7 |
|
A rural settlement |
22 |
29 |
24.9 |
|
Internet usage |
|||
|
Yes, daily |
14.3 |
16 |
18.6 |
|
Yes, several times a week |
15.5 |
14.7 |
15.7 |
|
Yes, several times a month |
11.9 |
9.8 |
14.2 |
|
Yes, several times a year |
3 |
4 |
2.6 |
|
No |
52.4 |
51.6 |
45.7 |
|
I do not know what is Internet |
3 |
4 |
3.3 |
It is evident that gender considerably influences gender-related political choice. Supporters of a female candidate are nearly 75% women. Among those for whom the candidate’s gender does not make any difference women comprise 53.6%, thus showing a slight shift. The percentage of males among patriarchal values supporters is greater than average for the selection. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that there are much more women among supporters of patriarchal values than men among supporters of gender equality.
The age differences among supporters of various gender-related political choices are considerably less prominent. There are more young people among supporters of a female candidate than on average, but the share of older people is also noticeable. As for the social status, the level of education, and the Internet usage, they practically have no influence on the corresponding gender-related political choice. The type of settlement influences it only slightly. The capital is more in favour of gender equality and a female candidate. Rural settlements are more inclined towards patriarchal values, but this inclination is not as strong as it may seem at first. Rural settlers comprise about 25% of gender equality supporters and about 20% of female candidate supporters.
What about correlations between gender-related political choice and political preferences proper? Table 7 attends to the subject in detail:
Table 7. Correlations between political preferences and gender-related political choice, %.
|
Political preferences |
What candidate (a man or a woman) would you vote for in the next Presidential Elections campaign? |
||
|
For a female candidate |
For a male candidate |
The candidate’s gender makes no difference for me |
|
|
If for the next Presidential elections the candidates were the following women who are known for their active participation in Belarusian politics, who would you vote for? |
|||
|
Lidia Yermoshina, the Chair of the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus |
20 |
11.7 |
14.9 |
|
Olga Karach, the leader of the Nash Dom (Our Home) Civic Campaign |
9.4 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
|
Inna Koulei, the Chair of Salidarnasc (Solidarity), the Committee for protecting and helping the victims of repressions |
5.9 |
3 |
5.4 |
|
Natalia Petkevich, the First Deputy of the Presidential Administration Chair |
16.5 |
8.5 |
11.1 |
|
Elena Skrigan, the Deputy Chair of the Spravedlivy Mir (Just World) Political Party (left-wing party) |
8.2 |
2.6 |
5.9 |
|
Marianna Shchetkina, the Minister of Labor and Social Security of the Republic of Belarus |
16.5 |
4.3 |
11.3 |
|
If tomorrow you had to vote in the Presidential elections, who would you vote for? |
|||
|
A. Lukashenko |
37.3 |
52.6 |
37.5 |
|
A. Kozulin |
0.6 |
4 |
2.5 |
|
A. Milinkevich |
4.1 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
|
L. Yermoshina |
6.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
N. Petkevich |
4.7 |
|
0.4 |
|
Some people consider themselves supporters of the group presently in power, others oppose this group. Are you a supporter or an opponent of the group presently in power? |
|||
|
I consider myself a supporter of the group presently in power |
31.4 |
43.8 |
33.1 |
|
I consider myself an opponent of the group presently in power |
10.7 |
15.1 |
19 |
|
I have not thought of it and I don’t care |
52.7 |
35.7 |
41.4 |
|
Do you trust the current President? |
|||
|
Yes, I do |
47.3 |
58.3 |
44.9 |
|
No, I do not |
33.1 |
30.9 |
41.5 |
|
No answer or invalid answer |
19.5 |
10.8 |
13.6 |
|
Do you trust the mass media controlled by the current government? |
|||
|
Yes, I do |
33.9 |
38.3 |
32.3 |
|
No, I do not |
48.2 |
44.9 |
52.7 |
|
No answer or invalid answer |
16.7 |
16.2 |
14.1 |
|
Do you trust the independent mass media? |
|||
|
Yes, I do |
33.3 |
27.5 |
32.5 |
|
No, I do not |
42.3 |
49.1 |
45.6 |
|
No answer or invalid answer |
23.8 |
22.5 |
21.2 |
|
If you had to choose between entering the Russian Federation or entering the European Union, what would you choose? |
|||
|
Entering the Russian Federation |
39.3 |
48.5 |
37.7 |
|
Entering the European Union |
45.2 |
34.3 |
43.7 |
All groups of the respondent retain the hierarchy of the candidates from ‘the female list’. Those who state that they prefer a male candidate, are less ready to vote for any female candidate, while those preferring a female candidate are more in favour of a female candidate from the list. The proponents of gender equality are somewhere in the middle. But Yarmoshina, Piatkevich, and Shchetkina are leading among all respondents. The changes in the hierarchy are insignificant: Volha Karach is more preferable than Koulei and Skrigan for those respondents who are definite in their preferences of the candidate’s gender (a man or a woman), but is less preferable for those respondents for whom the candidate’s gender makes no difference.
However, we must say that the respondents are very likely to treat ‘the female list’ as a joke. When they were answering an open question about their Presidential candidate, they gave quite different names and numbers. Yermoshina was marked as a candidate in 0.9% responces, Petkevich—in 0.8%, N. Masherava—in 0.2%, Z. Bandarenka and Volha Karach—in 0.1% each. The names of Shchetkina, Koulei, and Skrigan were not mentioned at all. Everything shows that the high positions of the female candidates were completely determined not by their qualities, but their high statuses as top officials in the ruling political group.
The open question ‘Who are you going to vote for?’ also shows the relations between gender-related political preferences and political choice proper, and the results leave little hope to female politicians. Yermoshina and Petkevich were chosen by mostly those who favour a female candidate. It is interesting to note that Lukashenka’s rating turned out to be equal for gender equality proponents (which does not exclude voting for a man), as well as for those who prefer a female candidate. This shows that in spite of declaring their preferences to vote for a female candidate, the respondents in reality did not want to choose a woman. However, this preference might be indirectly realized in the fact that the main opposition candidates (Kazulin and Milinkevich) have lowest popularity in this group, and the respondents decided that if they have to go against their previous declarations, then it must be with Lukashenka, not with Kazulin or Milinkevich. The leading three candidates are most popular among those who share patriarchal values.
Those who are in favour of a female candidate, do not consider themselves definite supporters or opponents of the political group presently in power, those respondents gave the highest share of irrelevant answers or no answer. Those who are in favour of a male candidate are the most ardent supporters of the political group presently in power. The proponents of gender equality are least trusting the current leader of the political group presently in power, while the proponents of patriarchal values are most trusting. This does not contradict the conclusion that women are more inclined to trust Lukashenko and comprise the most of his supporters. Not at all every woman is in favour of a female candidate, and not all those who are in favour of a female candidate are women.
As for trusting mass media (both independent and government-controlled), this is hardly related to the real gender-related political choice. Finally we can say that those who are going to support a female candidate are most pro-European, while those who are for a male candidate are most pro-Russian.
To summarize it all, we must say that gender-related political choice is determined mostly by the respondent’s gender, and somewhat by their political views. Support for democracy goes together with support for gender equality and favoring female candidates. Refusal of democracy principles produces the opposite effect. At the same time preference for male candidates is more widespread and more motivated than preference for female candidates. Hence most probably the answer for the question in the title will depend on a definite political situation: if the list of candidates for Presidency will include a woman stronger and more preferable than male candidates, people may elect her. However, this is unlikely if the list of candidates will include Lukashenka.
A group of independent experts