Policy briefs

On 29 September 2008, the Office for a Democratic Belarus attended the first policy speech of the newly appointed US Ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker. The event, entitled ‘Building a Stronger Transatlantic Consensus and a Modern NATO’, was hosted by the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

by Alastair Rabagliati

The recent release of political prisoners gave rise to the hope that there may also be an improvement in the electoral environment in Belarus. However the non-registration of candidates, following on from earlier harassment of prospective candidates means that the situation remains unchanged in practice from earlier elections. While there is a slight hope that a few opposition people may enter Parliament, there is virtually no remaining doubt that candidates could be freely elected.

By Vital Silitski

In the span of just four days, from 16th to 19th August 2008, former presidential candidate Alexander Kazulin and two participants of the entrepreneurs’ protests in January, Andei Kim and Siarhej Parsiukievich, where released from jail. This formally brought the number of remaining political prisoners in Belarus to zero. The fulfillment of the foremost demand of the European Union and the United States opened a rare opportunity for normalization of Belarus’ relations with the West. However, as freeing came upon the background of the intensification of the Kremlin’s pressure on Belarus, it can also be a repeat of the blackmailing pattern, when the Belarusian authorities nudge Russia towards a more lenient deals on energy price issues by threatening with ‘normalization’ of relations with the West.  Even so, Russia’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy following the conflict in Georgia may create a deeper set of incentives for the official Minsk to move closer to the West than the mere petty blackmail of Kremlin. In this situation, effective and clearly defined conditionality formulated by both the European Union and the United States may be a key factor promoting positive changes in the country in the near future.

By David Marples

One of the interesting features of the Russia-Georgia conflict has been the sluggish support Russia has received from its allies. Perhaps most notable has been the reaction in Minsk, where the government of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has acted ambivalently and still appears to be vacillating over the wisest course of action.

By Jan Maksymiuk

Should Belarus's ambitious privatization plan come to fruition, the country's state-dominated economy could be in store for a breakthrough.

The sheer numbers contained in the two-year plan are impressive -- more than 500 state-run enterprises and some 150 businesses partly owned by the government would be up for sale.

But since the program was announced in July, it has attracted its share of skeptics who question its true objectives.